As much as 75% of buildings in the EU are energy-inefficient, with the sector accounting for 40% of energy consumption and 36% of emissions. In Poland, the poor technical condition of residential buildings has a direct impact on citizens’ health and results in high housing maintenance costs. The implementation of the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) is therefore a critical milestone – the pace of eradicating eliminating energy poverty, climate protection and the modernisation drive for the national economy all depend on how it is implemented.

The aim of the project is to provide a data-driven assessment of the socio-economic and environmental benefits of implementing the EPBD in Poland by 2035. The analyses carried out examine how the accelerated thermal modernisation of buildings affects economic growth, the labour market and Polish household budgets.

Reform Institute, commissioned by and in close cooperation with the Fala Renowacji association, conducted a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis comparing two scenarios for the development of the building sector in Poland. A team of experts is comparing the option of maintaining current trends with an ambitious model of accelerated renovation resulting from the EPBD directive. The study includes a detailed assessment of the impacts on the national economy, including energy savings and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The main deliverable of the work is a joint report entitled „Polska fala renowacji: korzyści z modernizacji budynków”, which contains detailed economic and environmental forecasts. The publication provides decision-makers and the market with hard evidence that investments in the energy efficiency of buildings yield a high return. The report serves as a substantive reference point for the design of national renovation strategies and financial support mechanisms.

The project enhances the quality of the public debate on the transformation of the construction sector, shifting the focus from costs to tangible benefits. It helps to highlight the EPBD as an opportunity for national modernisation that permanently reduces energy poverty and stimulates the growth of local businesses.

The Reform Institute is responsible for analytical work and scenario modelling. The project is the latest outcome of the Institute’s ongoing collaboration with the multi-sector association Fala Renowacji, which began in 2022. Combining expert knowledge with the perspective of a broad industry coalition has enabled the creation of comprehensive guidelines for the transformation of the construction sector in Poland.