Poland still lacks a coherent and long-term vision of development. The institutions responsible for the energy and climate transition do not cooperate, decisions are made in an uncoordinated manner and without a clear direction. In the latest report, “Strategy or Stagnation? Poland facing the challenges of transformation”, experts from the Reform Institute warn that without stronger institutions and better processes to deliberately steer change, Poland risks missing out on development opportunities and facing rising socioeconomic costs.

The report “Strategy or stagnation? Poland facing the challenges of transformation” is available in Polish here.

Climate change, demographic crisis, rising geopolitical tensions and the accelerating technological revolution are just some of the challenges that the country faces. The government, however, continues to react to external pressures rather than shape its own agenda.

The road to building a modern and sustainable country begins with a vision and a strategy that sets goals and milestones to track progress. Meanwhile, in the case of the energy transition, Poland resembles a ship without a set course. Instead of consciously steering change, we are drifting on the waves of external conditions - from the availability of European funds, through the requirements of EU legislation, to international political, economic and military tensions. Lack of strategy means stagnation. Without a long-term plan, we risk being a country with the most expensive energy in the EU, with a divided society and a delayed modernization of the economy, stresses Paweł Wiejski, senior analyst at the Reform Institute and co-author of the report.

The price of improvisation

In their report, experts from the Reform Institute show that the absence of a long-term strategy and coordinated transformation efforts has resulted in costly mistakes such as an inefficient allocation of public funds. An example is the still unfinished modernization of the Warsaw-Poznan railroad line, worth around 2.5 billion PLN, which will not significantly improve either capacity or travel times between cities. The decision to start construction of the Ostrołęka C coal power plant is another example of a decision made without secured financing and in disregard of the increasingly unfavourable outlook for coal. Although onshore wind power is the cheapest today, it cannot more broadly support the competitiveness of Polish economy because of the 10H rule, introduced a decade ago. Even the liberalization of distance regulations announced this year will not bring quick results. Due to lengthy administrative procedures, new investments will not be able to start until 5-7 years from now.

Equally serious consequences will come from the lack of coherent and up-to-date strategic documents. The climate and energy transition is a complex process that requires time, coordination and the involvement of many actors that act responsibly with future generations in mind. Therefore, we can no longer afford to improvise. Either we set the course ourselves - in dialogue, responsibly and in accordance with our interests - or we go where others push us - explains Michał Wojtyło, an analyst at the Reform Institute and co-author of the report.

Inspiration from Europe - How others have dealt with decarbonization

Experts emphasize that a successful transformation is possible provided that goals are clearly set, institutions are strengthened, and society is genuinely included in the decision-making process. This has been proven by the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom, which have successfully reduced their economies' dependence on coal.

The Czech Republic stands out for its orderly system of strategies, institutional continuity of bodies responsible for the transition, and broad stakeholder involvement - from local governments to experts and to energy company unions. Despite the tense political situation surrounding the development of the country's climate and energy policies, Czech Republic managed to maintain the goal of moving away from coal combustion by 2033.The UK's case demonstrates the importance of independent and publicly respected institutions, long-term targets and a transparent, data-driven process for change. Thanks to those factors, the country managed to reduce its coal consumption from 60 million tons a year to almost zero in just over a decade.

Year 2025 as a chance for a breakthrough

Poland may use these lessons to create a tailored governance framework for its own transformation.

Year 2025 is an important moment for setting a new course. The deadlines for the publication of updates to the Medium-Term Strategy for National Development (MTND) and Poland's Energy Policy until 2040 (PEP2040) are approaching, as well as the drafting of other important sectoral plans, including the Social and Climate Plan and the National Building Renovation Plan. This is an opportunity to set a long-term path for Poland's development, which should not be wasted," concludes** Zofia Wetmańska, CSO and Head of Regulatory Analysis at the Reform Institute**.

We encourage you to read the recommendations of the Reform Institute in the report "Strategy or Stagnation? Poland Facing the Challenges of Transformation" available in Polish. This is the first publication in a series carried out as part of a project financed by the National Plan for Reconstruction and Resilience Enhancement (KPO).

More information on the project can be found in Polish here.